Lula Secures Fourth Term in Brazil

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won a fourth nonconsecutive term as president of Brazil on Monday, defeating far-right senator Flávio Bolsonaro in a narrow runoff. The 80-year-old incumbent received 51.79% of the vote to his rival’s 48.21%, a margin of approximately 4.3 million votes among 159 million voters.

Lula reversed a deficit established in the first round of elections held in early October. In that initial ballot, Flávio Bolsonaro secured 47.03% of the vote to Lula’s 45.16%. The senator, who is 45 years old, had never before seen a first-round runner-up successfully turn the tide in a Brazilian presidential second ballot since the return of democracy in 1985.

Flávio Bolsonaro refused to concede the result, describing it as impossible to accept. He cited a decision to extend voting hours by two extra days as a factor in the outcome, though both campaigns had requested the extension for different reasons. His father, former president Jair Bolsonaro, is currently serving a 27-year prison sentence for plotting a coup after losing the 2022 election.

The campaign saw a mobilization effort by progressive voters following a record abstention rate of 21% in the first round. Millions joined a WhatsApp channel named Lula’s Army to distribute supportive content. Lula, who recently acquired his first smartphone, began posting to Instagram and TikTok, eventually surpassing Bolsonaro in digital reach. The Bolsonaro campaign also faced scrutiny after a magazine reported that Flávio attended a boat party with vaccine lobbyists during the 2020 pandemic.

President Donald Trump did not formally endorse Flávio Bolsonaro but imposed 50% tariffs on Brazilian imports last year. Trump described the supreme court trial of Jair Bolsonaro as a witch hunt, a move Lula framed as a defense against colonial designs. Lula’s victory maintains a multilateral foreign policy approach, rejecting invitations to join a Latin American military coalition against drug cartels that would have increased U.S. involvement on Brazilian soil.

Lula’s administration has reduced deforestation in the Amazon by more than 70% over the past four years. He also cracked down on illegal mining in Indigenous reserves. However, he will now work with a newly elected congress that includes a record number of right-wing politicians who are often hostile to environmental and Indigenous rights issues.

Tom Phillips, the Latin America correspondent for The Guardian, stated that the result represents the crescendo of Lula’s 50-year political career. He noted that while Bolsonaro’s refusal to concede may create immediate tension, international leaders have already begun recognizing Lula’s win. Phillips believes Bolsonaro’s political career is effectively over and that the senator may travel to the United States to avoid ongoing criminal investigations.