4.3 Million Votes: Lula Claims Fourth Presidency in Brazil

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won a fourth nonconsecutive term as president of Brazil on Sunday, defeating far-right senator Flávio Bolsonaro in a runoff that remained tight until the final counts. The result was declared shortly after midnight UK time on October 26, 2026.

Lula, the incumbent from the Workers' party, captured 51.79% of the vote compared to 48.21% for his rival. This margin represents approximately 4.3 million votes among Brazil's 159 million eligible voters. Upon winning, Lula described the outcome as a defeat for denialism.

The victory represents a sharp reversal from the first round held earlier this month. At that time, Flávio Bolsonaro led with 56.1 million votes, or 47.03%, against Lula's 53.8 million votes, or 45.16%. Since Brazilian democracy was restored in 1985, no candidate who finished second in the first round had ever won the second ballot. Polls tightened in the weeks between the two votes, leaving Bolsonaro ahead by only small fractions of a percentage point before the final day.

Several factors contributed to Lula's late surge. The first round saw a record abstention rate of 21%, which disproportionately affected lower-income voters who typically support Lula. To counter this, millions of supporters joined a WhatsApp channel known as Lula's army. This group sent daily instructions on how to make supportive content go viral. Lula, who recently acquired his first smartphone, began posting on Instagram and TikTok. His digital reach surpassed Bolsonaro's for the first time during this campaign. The Bolsonaro campaign faced scandals, including a claim by the magazine Piauí that Flávio Bolsonaro attended a boat party in 2020 with sex workers and vaccine lobbyists.

The race was also influenced by international dynamics. President Donald Trump called the trial of Jair Bolsonaro, Flávio's father, a witch-hunt and imposed 50% tariffs on Brazilian imports. Lula positioned himself as a defender against what he termed Trump's colonial designs. He pursued a multilateral foreign policy that balanced relations with the US, China, and Russia. Lula also declined invitations to join a Latin American coalition conducting military operations against drug cartels alongside the Pentagon.

The election outcome carries implications for environmental policy. Under Lula, deforestation in the Amazon has fallen by more than 70%. His government has cracked down on illegal mining and supported Indigenous people. However, Lula will work with a newly elected congress that includes a record number of rightwing politicians who are hostile to Indigenous rights and environmental causes.

Flávio Bolsonaro has refused to concede the election. He cited the decision to extend voting by two hours as a reason for his challenge, noting that both sides had requested the extension for different reasons. He stated that it was impossible to concede the result. Guardian correspondent Tom Phillips said he does not expect the challenge to succeed because world leaders are already recognizing Lula's win. Phillips suggested Bolsonaro may travel to the United States to avoid ongoing criminal investigations. Lula turns 81 on Tuesday.