Brazil Runoff: Lula Reverses Deficit to Claim Fourth Presidency

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva secured his fourth term as president of Brazil on Sunday, defeating far-right challenger Flávio Bolsonaro in a runoff that erased a substantial first-round deficit. With nearly 99% of ballots counted, Lula received 51.75% of the vote compared to 48.25% for Bolsonaro. The 45-year-old senator had trailed Lula by 2.2 million votes after the initial round in early October but finished 4.3 million votes behind.

The shift in momentum appears driven largely by voter turnout. Lula’s campaign identified high abstention rates as a primary risk because his supporters often live farther from polling stations. In the first round, 21.08% of eligible voters did not cast a ballot, a record high for the election. That figure dropped to 19.21% in the Sunday runoff, closing the gap between the two candidates. This outcome marks a first in Brazilian democratic history, as no candidate who finished second in the first round has previously won the subsequent runoff.

Lula, who turns 81 on Tuesday, has a long history in Brazilian politics that began as a union leader in São Paulo. He lost three presidential bids in 1989, 1994, and 1998 before becoming the country’s first elected working-class president in 2002. He served two constitutional terms, then won the 2022 election against Jair Bolsonaro, the father of this year’s opponent. His victory on Sunday ends a period of uncertainty for progressive voters who had watched his lead disappear in the early weeks of the campaign.

The result delivers a major setback to the Bolsonaro political dynasty. Jair Bolsonaro, who is serving a 27-year sentence for plotting a coup, is under house arrest in Brasília. He had expected to be released and given a government role if his son won. In Brasília, where Flávio Bolsonaro watched the count, the confirmation of Lula’s victory prompted visible anger. The loss also disrupts a broader alignment in Latin America, where US President Donald Trump had hoped to consolidate a bloc of supportive leaders, including Abelardo de la Espriella in Colombia, Daniel Noboa in Ecuador, José Antonio Kast in Chile, and Javier Milei in Argentina.

Lula’s allies celebrated the win with large gatherings in Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo. More than a million people assembled on Copacabana beach in Rio on Saturday, while an even larger crowd marched on Paulista Avenue in São Paulo. These rallies followed weeks of student-led protests against Bolsonaro. On Sunday evening, hundreds returned to Paulista Avenue to watch the final count, waving red flags. Reginaldo Lopes, a key ally, described the outcome as a message to the world about the extreme right and said Brazil would now reorganize its democratic forces.

Tensions flared in São Paulo over an apparent effort by pro-Bolsonaro politicians to disrupt the vote by sabotaging public transport in areas leaning toward Lula. The alleged attempt failed to stop the turnout surge. Camilo Buarque, 35, a supporter on Paulista Avenue, called the result a demonstration of democracy. Lucas Lopes, 32, characterized the transport issues as another coup attempt. Photographer Caio Marques, 40, from Franca, noted that the left had faltered in the first round but woke up for the second.