Serbia's New Government Defers Foreign Policy Changes for Domestic Repairs

Serbia’s foreign policy will change slowly, not quickly, according to experts. The Student List won a historic victory in Sunday’s election, ending 14 years of rule by Aleksandar Vucic and the Serbian Progressive Party. While international observers expect a pivot toward the West, domestic fixes come first. The new government faces a messy internal transition before it can reset regional ties.

Aleksandar Popov, director of the Centre for Regionalism in Novi Sad, said regional relations will not be an immediate priority. The new authorities must first address a system that has captured democratic institutions. They also face problems in the judiciary, prosecution service, police, and media sector. Popov stated that tidying up at home takes precedence over solving problems with neighbors.

Relations with neighboring countries are currently strained. Vucic’s nationalist rhetoric often frayed ties with Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Montenegro, and Kosovo. Popov noted that relations with Croatia are not frozen but are marked by sharp words. During recent mass protests, Vucic accused Zagreb of organizing a color revolution. He added that relations with Montenegro are disrupted, while issues with Bosnia and Herzegovina remain unresolved.

Popov described the previous system as functioning on the production of internal and external enemies. He noted a quiet convergence on Bosnia and Herzegovina, where Belgrade backed Republika Srpska leader Milorad Dodik and Zagreb favored a third entity. He hopes the new government, led by experts and civic leaders, will work to stabilize the region. The previous government sabotaged EU integration, and the EU will not accept a country without good neighborly relations.

Vuk Vuksanovic, a lecturer in foreign policy at King’s College London, predicted that foreign policy will transform the least. Many international and domestic structures that shape Serbian foreign policy will remain in place. Moscow never fully trusted Vucic but viewed him as the devil they knew. Russian influence will take a blow as Vucic-controlled media lose their uncritical glorification of Moscow. Intelligence cooperation will be downgraded, but the new government is unlikely to adopt a hawkish stance overnight.

Serbian interests can continue to be served by ties with Russia. The country still needs preferential gas prices, and the Kosovo dispute remains unresolved. Parts of the public remain disillusioned with the West. Vuksanovic stated that the new government will not see value in joining EU sanctions or adopting a hawkish stance toward Moscow. Regarding Ukraine, Serbia will maintain its policy of not recognizing the annexation of Crimea and Donbas. However, there is a question mark over ammunition deliveries, which the opposition viewed as a cynical ploy to buy Western tolerance.

Bosko Jaksic, a foreign policy analyst, noted that Serbia’s close relationship with Israel will face scrutiny. While ties will not be severed, recent controversial agreements will be re-examined. This includes Serbian ammunition exports to Israel and Israeli surveillance equipment exports to Serbia. Jaksic observed that Netanyahu’s government has lost another authoritarian, nationalist ally in Europe after Viktor Orban’s removal in Hungary. Serbia’s future stance will also depend on political developments in Jerusalem. How Israel positions itself toward the new authorities in Belgrade depends largely on the outcome of Israel’s own elections.

Jaksic emphasized that Serbia’s policy of sitting on multiple chairs will be re-evaluated. It is realistic to expect Belgrade to strengthen ties with the EU. The international community should expect a period of intense internal reform rather than sudden geopolitical realignments. The new government’s task is to repair damaged ties and stabilize the region. The transition begins with fixing internal systems before any major shifts in external relations occur.