Polls Project 69% Turnout for Palestinians in Israel's October Vote

Voter turnout among Palestinian citizens of Israel is projected to reach approximately 69 percent in the October 2026 election, according to unpublished data cited by analyst Ameer Fakhoury. The figure exceeds the 64 to 68 percent range estimated by the last two published opinion polls. This number would surpass the record set in 2020, when the Joint List alliance won 15 seats in the Knesset.

The surge in participation follows a four-year period of high-stakes conflict. Palestinian citizens constitute 2.1 million people, roughly 20 percent of Israel's total population. In the previous election held in 2022, only 54 percent of this demographic cast ballots. Fakhoury, who heads the Nisan Center for a Shared Society at the Vanleer Institute, notes that a reluctance to publicize the current 69 percent figure exists to avoid creating a sense of complacency among voters.

Fakhoury attributes the increased interest to a shift in how Palestinians perceive the state’s internal limits. He argues that previous abstention was driven by socioeconomic factors and a belief that Israel possessed a degree of rationality. That belief has eroded due to the government's actions in Gaza and the West Bank, as well as the rise of organized crime in Palestinian communities within Israel. Fakhoury states that the state’s desire to maintain a specific international image no longer serves as a check on its behavior.

The analyst identifies three historical lines of defense for Palestinian citizens: internal societal restraints, adherence to the liberal international order, and the Israeli Supreme Court. He contends that all three have collapsed. The Supreme Court recently barred Balad party leader Sami Abu Shehada from running in the current election based on an article written three years ago. Fakhoury describes this ruling as a populist appeal to majority instincts rather than a strict application of legal principles.

Opinion polls indicate that around 80 percent of Jewish Israelis support the destruction being inflicted on Palestinians, according to Fakhoury. He argues that this shift in the majority’s stance makes voting a mechanism for survival rather than a standard expression of civic confidence. His team at the University of Haifa is currently analyzing a survey of approximately 1,500 Palestinians to determine the primary motivations behind this participation.

The survey is examining three drivers of political engagement: solidarity with the broader Palestinian people, self-preservation of immediate communities, and basic survival. Fakhoury reports that survival is becoming the dominant motivation. He posits that when existential fear is the primary concern, it outweighs ordinary civic demands such as municipal services or budget allocations. This dynamic changes the substantive meaning of citizenship, as citizens engage in politics to avoid displacement.

Three Israeli political parties are currently campaigning on platforms that support the deportation or expulsion of Palestinians, including those with citizenship. Finance Minister and Religious Zionism party leader Bezalel Smotrich has made the "Judaising" of the Galilee and Negev regions a central part of his campaign. Fakhoury notes that under these conditions, the space for ordinary political life narrows significantly.

The upcoming vote is scheduled for Tuesday. While previous elections were viewed through the lens of standard democratic participation, Fakhoury says this contest is being approached as a way to protect basic conditions of existence. The high projected turnout reflects a collective decision to engage with the executive authority to secure a political lifeline in a changing political environment.