Netanyahu Holds Seat Advantage Over Eisenkot in Fragmented Knesset

The 120-seat Knesset faces a fragmented result after the highest voter turnout since 2001 left Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his rivals without a clear path to power. As of Wednesday, 85 percent of votes were counted, placing Netanyahu and his allies at 53 seats while a bloc led by former army chief Gadi Eisenkot held 48. Two slates representing Palestinian citizens of Israel, the Joint List and Ra'am, together accounted for 19 seats. No camp currently holds the 61 members required for a majority, leaving coalition talks in a precarious position.

Netanyahu retains a procedural advantage as the sitting prime minister, a status that keeps him in office until a replacement government is formed. President Isaac Herzog is likely to invite him first to attempt to build a new cabinet. His Likud party emerged as the largest single group in parliament with an expected 26 seats. This result came after exit polls released at 10pm on Tuesday showed his bloc trailing Eisenkot’s, a lead that shifted as the final counts arrived.

To secure a majority, Netanyahu could pursue a unity government with major opposition forces, including Eisenkot’s Yashar and Naftali Bennett’s Together slate. This approach might appeal to President Donald Trump and Herzog, both of whom reportedly prefer this outcome. However, such a deal would likely require dropping at least one of the far-right parties led by Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir. It could also cost the ultra-Orthodox parties Shas and United Torah Judaism, given the opposition’s campaign focus on conscripting Haredi youth.

A second possibility involves Eisenkot forming a minority government. While his bloc trails Netanyahu’s, nearly 70 anti-Netanyahu MPs were elected once Palestinian parties are included. Figures such as Bennett and Avigdor Lieberman have ruled out formal coalitions with Arab parties, so Eisenkot may seek outside support instead. Assaf David of the Vanleer Institute noted that this strategy carries risks, warning that Netanyahu would portray the arrangement as Arabs stealing the election with a minority of Jewish MPs.

David added that relying on the Arab vote to tip the scale against Netanyahu is dangerous politically and security-wise. He did not rule out attempts to assassinate Eisenkot if this path is chosen. The third scenario is a repeat election, a situation that occurred twice in 2019 when neither Netanyahu nor Benny Gantz could form a government. The president grants a candidate 28 days to form a government, extendable by 14 days on request.

A slide toward new polls would suit Netanyahu, who remains prime minister during the interim. David expects conditions to favor his camp in a rerun. About 67,000 Israelis returned from abroad to vote in this election, most of whom likely backed Netanyahu’s opponents. Turnout among Palestinian citizens of Israel reached 80 percent, up from 54 percent in 2022, with many voting for the first time after a longstanding boycott.

Matching that participation level in a second election would be difficult for the opposition, which David described as having a "one-shot opportunity." A right-wing base is expected to be energized to stop the Arab vote in a potential rerun. The current tally stands at 53 seats for Netanyahu’s camp and 48 for the Eisenkot-led bloc, with the 19 seats held by the Joint List and Ra'am serving as the critical swing factor for any future administration.