Eisenkot coalition talks leave Arab capitals waiting

Arab governments are watching the Israeli coalition talks without committing to a position.

Israeli politicians began negotiations to assemble a governing coalition after an election that produced no clear winner. Statements from officials in Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Lebanon have been limited while the outcome remains unsettled. The uncertainty centers on whether Benjamin Netanyahu will remain prime minister or whether Gadi Eisenkot will take office.

Analysts do not expect a significant shift in Israel's regional relations regardless of who leads the next government. Beth Oppenheim, a policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, wrote that an Eisenkot administration would probably be politically fragile. She added that Netanyahu's security doctrine, which involves operating beyond Israel's borders and maintaining buffer zones in neighboring territories, has been embraced by nearly all Jewish Israeli parties. Egyptian politician Mostafa Bakry wrote on X that the two men are "two sides of the same coin." Eisenkot stated in August that no Palestinian state would be established under a government he forms.

Comments from regional actors reflect those assessments. Saudi Arabia has said normalization of ties with Israel requires progress on Palestinian statehood. At a meeting last week with foreign ministers from Pakistan, Turkey and Egypt, Saudi Arabia signed a communique stating that Israel is "the fundamental source of instability in the region and beyond." Lebanese officials and commentators have expressed a preference for dealing with Eisenkot on the withdrawal of Israeli troops from southern Lebanon and the disarmament of Hezbollah. A Lebanese official told L'Orient Today that during the 2021 to 2022 period when Netanyahu was out of power, negotiators concluded a maritime agreement.

Ksenia Svetlova, an associate fellow at Chatham House, said a security agreement with Syria becomes more probable if an anti-Netanyahu bloc takes power. She noted that such an agreement would take time because the government would face attacks from the extreme right. Mairav Zonszein of the International Crisis Group told the Associated Press that a new government could at best slow the acceleration of actions in the occupied territories.

Coalition negotiations are continuing. Elizabeth Tsurkov, a senior fellow at the Middle East Policy Council, wrote that suppressing settler violence is feasible because it lacks majority support among Israelis and damages Israel's international reputation.