22 Flights: The New Cost of Moonshots

SpaceX is facing a steep hurdle in its bid to support NASA’s return to the Moon. The latest internal estimate suggests that 22 separate Starship launches are needed to send a crewed lander to the lunar surface and bring it back. This figure marks a significant shift from earlier projections that hinted at a much lower number. The agency has historically kept this specific metric under wraps, treating the data with a level of secrecy usually reserved for sensitive defense programs. However, the recent disclosure provides a clearer picture of the logistical challenge ahead.

The number 22 is the focal point of the new calculation. It represents the total number of rockets required to build a fuel depot in low-Earth orbit. One of these vehicles serves as the depot itself, while the remaining 21 act as tankers. Each tanker must carry liquid oxygen and methane to fill the depot. Once fully fueled, the depot can then send the crewed lander to the Moon. This process requires a massive amount of propellant to cover the long journey and the return trip to lunar orbit. The sheer volume of fuel needed drives up the launch count significantly.

In the past, NASA officials have been vague about this requirement. In 2023, Lisa Watson-Morgan, who led the Human Landing System team at the time, told reporters that the agency had a general idea but was reluctant to commit to a specific figure. She described the number as being in the high single digits to low double digits. That range implied roughly a dozen launches. Other officials have occasionally suggested the number might be in the high teens. These earlier estimates assumed that SpaceX would rapidly improve the lift capacity of its rockets. That improvement would allow each launch to carry more fuel, thereby reducing the total number of flights needed.

The new estimate emerged during a quarterly meeting of the NASA Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel on Thursday. Charlie Precourt, a former NASA astronaut and current panel member, discussed the risks associated with the Artemis program. He highlighted the specific challenge of landing humans on the Moon. The panel’s review indicates that concerns are growing among some agency officials. They fear that the necessary improvements in rocket capacity may not arrive soon enough. If the lift capacity does not increase as hoped, the number of tanker flights will remain high.

This creates a timing issue for the Artemis program. NASA aims to return humans to the Moon within this decade. To make that happen, SpaceX would need to execute a high volume of successful launches in a short period. The requirement for 22 launches adds substantial complexity and cost to the mission. It also increases the risk associated with each individual flight. The agency hopes that future upgrades to the Starship vehicle will lower this number. Until those upgrades are proven, the 22-launch requirement stands as the baseline for planning.

The stakes are high for both NASA and SpaceX. A successful Moon landing relies on the seamless integration of multiple rocket launches. Any delay or failure in the tanker flights could stall the entire mission. The new estimate serves as a reality check for the program’s timeline. It underscores the technical difficulty of refueling large spacecraft in orbit. As the agency moves forward, it must balance its ambitious goals with the practical limits of current rocket technology. The number 22 is not just a statistic; it is a measure of the effort required to reach the Moon.